Opinion poll in the North Caucasus: before december 2007 Medvedev’s rating was 10%
PRAGUE, 4 March, Caucasus Times - One of the most striking and at the same time predictable phenomenons of the political life in Russia in the first months of 2008 is unprecedented rise in popularity of Dmitry Medvedev, who managed to beat all other presidential candidates in Russia during very short period of time. Results of the most recent opinion poll held by research company VCIOM released on 21 February 2008 indicate that official Putin’s “successor” with 72.9% of public support is going to win in the Russian presidential elections.
It is worth of noting that Medvedev’ popularity started its unprecedented growth right after this previously rank-and-file Russian politician from Putin’s inner circle was officially promoted by Putin to a status of his official “successor”. Results of the recent opinion polls indicate that in terms of popularity as presidential candidate Medvedev successfully beat not only other representatives of Putin’s political clan, but also such veterans of Russian political scene as Communist Gennady Zyuganov and Liberal Democrat Vladimir Zhirinovsky. Sharp rise in Medvedev’s popularity stems from PR-activities of pro-Kremlin media and political structures and official support by Putin, who uses all possibilities to promote Dmitry Medvedev both at home and abroad.
Public opinion polls conducted by information agency “Caucasus Times” in the fall 2007 enabled to get unique information about the attitudes of the population in the North Caucasus towards presidential elections and about personal preferences of the population. The fact that polls were conducted before December 2007 when Medvedev was proclaimed Putin’s official “successor” is of particular value since poll results reflect real popularity of Medvedev as autonomous politician who at that time did not get the official blessing of Putin, who is still enjoying very high popularity among Russians.
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Responses of those polled to a question “in your opinion, are presidential elections going to have impact on your republic and if yes, what impact?” indicate that almost half of all respondents (47%) don’t connect any hopes for changes in their republics with presidential elections. At the same time, expectations about the presidential elections proved to be somewhat more pronounced than in case of parliamentary elections. Thus, more than half of those polled (57%) said they don’t expect that Duma elections can lead to any changes in their republics.
Sceptical attitudes towards potential possibility of presidential elections to have impact on situation in the North Caucasus are most popular among the residents of the capital of Kabardino-Balkaria Nalchik and the capital of Dagestan Makhachkala. Thus, 57% of Nalchik residents and 54% of Makhachkala residents are certain about the fact that presidential elections are not going to have any impact on their republics. At the same time, in the capitals of Ingushetia and Karachaevo-Cherkessia only minority think that presidential elections are not going to influence their republics. 39% in Ingushetian Nazran and 42% in Karachevo-Cherkessian Cherkessk said that elections of president would not have any influence on their republics.
Among those in the North Caucasus who think that presidential elections will have some impact on situation in the North Caucasus, most people expect positive (11%) or “rather positive” (13%) consequences of the presidential elections. Only 7% think that elections will have negative influence and 11% - “rather negative” influence. However, expectations about the results of presidential elections are quite different in various repulics and are distributed across the North Caucasus region quite unevenly.
It is interesting that residents of Ingushetian Nazran are the most optimistic about the presidential elections. 23% of Nazran residents expect “positive” and 14% - “rather positive” results of the elections. Residents of Chechen capital Grozny are also quite positive about the elections. Thus, 20% of Grozny residents expect positive and 8% - “rather positive” results of the elections.
Pessimists dominate in the Republic of Dagestan and also in Karachaevo-Cherkessia and North Ossetia. Thus, 15% of those polled in Makhachkala are sure about “rather negative” and 12% - about “negative” consequences of the presidential elections. Only 7% of respondents in Makhachkala think elections will have positive and 6% - “rather positive” results. Among the residents of Makhachkala, overall number of pessimists (27%) is more than twice higher than the overall number of optimists (13%). It should also be mentioned that Makhachkala residents turned out to be the most sceptical about the consequences of State Duma elections.